Running out of a bestseller during a growth push, or sitting on dead stock from a slow season, both usually trace back to the same root cause: forecasting by feel instead of by data.

Sales velocity is the starting point

Average units sold per week, per SKU, over the last 90 days gives a baseline. From there, adjust for known seasonality and any planned promotions, rather than guessing at a round number.

Reorder points, not reorder panic

A reorder point, the inventory level that triggers a new order, should account for supplier lead time plus a buffer. Without one, reordering becomes reactive instead of planned.

Slow movers deserve a decision, not neglect

SKUs that consistently underperform should get an active decision: discount them out, bundle them, or discontinue them. Letting them sit ties up cash that could fund a bestseller's next order.